Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $892,813$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{743,257.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 129.6)}}\) (asimptote \(743,257.4\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $24,011$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,363.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 136.4)}}\) (asimptote \(21,363.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $88,489$ on 2020-12-17
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $115,966$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{122,271.6}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 235.1)}}\) (asimptote \(122,271.6\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,032$ on 2020-12-17
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,050$ on 2020-12-17
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,502$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,914.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 204.2)}}\) (asimptote \(13,914.3\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $110$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{129.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 190.1)}}\) (asimptote \(129.7\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $255$ on 2020-12-17
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $93,283$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,164.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 204.9)}}\) (asimptote \(101,164.7\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,337$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,489.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 202.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,489.6\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,715$ on 2020-12-17
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $409,746$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{632,049.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 250.7)}}\) (asimptote \(632,049.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,804$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,656.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 247.1)}}\) (asimptote \(10,656.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,944$ on 2020-12-17
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $123,701$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,803.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 100.7)}}\) (asimptote \(107,803.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,015$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,352.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 107.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,352.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,767$ on 2020-12-17
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $15,089$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,786.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 101.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11,786.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $366$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{326.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 111.9)}}\) (asimptote \(326.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,713$ on 2020-12-17
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $17,607$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,449.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 168.2)}}\) (asimptote \(14,449.9\))
Start date 2020-07-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $164$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(143.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,070$ on 2020-12-17