Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Tunisia
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Egypt
  • Congo (Kinshasa)
  • Namibia
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Ethiopia
  • Kenya

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $892,813$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{743,257.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 129.6)}}\) (asimptote \(743,257.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24,011$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,363.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 136.4)}}\) (asimptote \(21,363.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $88,489$ on 2020-12-17

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $115,966$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{122,271.6}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 235.1)}}\) (asimptote \(122,271.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,032$ on 2020-12-17

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,050$ on 2020-12-17

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,502$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,914.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 204.2)}}\) (asimptote \(13,914.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{129.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 190.1)}}\) (asimptote \(129.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $255$ on 2020-12-17

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $93,283$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,164.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 204.9)}}\) (asimptote \(101,164.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,337$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,489.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 202.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,489.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,715$ on 2020-12-17

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $409,746$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{632,049.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 250.7)}}\) (asimptote \(632,049.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,804$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,656.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 247.1)}}\) (asimptote \(10,656.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,944$ on 2020-12-17

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $123,701$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,803.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 100.7)}}\) (asimptote \(107,803.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,015$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,352.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 107.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,352.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,767$ on 2020-12-17

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,089$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,786.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 101.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11,786.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $366$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{326.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 111.9)}}\) (asimptote \(326.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,713$ on 2020-12-17

Namibia⮸

Population $2,540,905$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,607$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,449.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 168.2)}}\) (asimptote \(14,449.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-07-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $164$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(143.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,070$ on 2020-12-17

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Ethiopia recovered 63%
Kenya recovered 41%
Morocco recovered 34%

Ethiopia⮸

Population $114,963,588$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $118,481$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113,231.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 141.8)}}\) (asimptote \(113,231.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,831$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,746.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 100.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,746.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-05-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,899$ on 2020-12-17

Kenya⮸

Population $53,771,296$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $93,405$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,403.8}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 255.1)}}\) (asimptote \(177,403.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,618$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,887.7}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 240.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,887.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,788$ on 2020-12-17